Estimating the ship traffic in the Istanbul Strait through economic growth of region countries

The current study predicts the future course of ships passing through İstanbul Strait. In this direction, considering that world economy is biggest factor in demand for maritime transport, relationship between GDPs and trade volumes Black Sea states, ship traffic analyzed using regression estimation two separate models. included countries are Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey Ukraine. Then, growth forecasts published by IMF relevant it was estimated how much an increase would be 2026 compared to 2020. Considering coefficients obtained from models, 2026, GDP model proposes a 20.02% increase, volume 28.8% tonnage strait. These results reveal importance necessity strategies projects developed regulate rise strait traffic.